Economics 466: Economics of Population
University of Michigan
Course Outline and Reading List
Fall 2003
Instructors:
Murray
Leibbrandt, Professor of Economics, University
of Cape Town, Class Meeting Time and Place: Section 1: Monday 2:30-4:00, 373 Lorch; Wednesday
2:30-4:00, G444D Mason Hall (computer classroom) Section 2: Monday 4:00-5:30, 373 Lorch;
and Visiting Professor of Economics, University of Michigan, 205 Lorch Hall, 764-2320,
mleibbr@umich.edu
See UM CourseTools web site for office hours and announcements throughout course (http://coursetools.ummu.umich.edu/).
Course Description:
This course uses an economic perspective to analyze the dramatic changes in fertility, mortality, marriage, and household structure in recent decades in both industrialized and developing countries. In Fall 2003 the course will include a special focus on poverty and inequality in developing countries, with a particular emphasis on South Africa. The course will be co-taught by Professor Murray Leibbrandt, one of South Africas leading economists, who will be a visiting professor at UM in 2003.
The course will include a computer lab component built around statistical analysis of household survey data. Students will use the statistical package Stata to analyze demographic and economic change in South Africa and other countries, applying recent innovations in the application of microeconomic theory and econometrics to the analysis of demographic behavior, labor markets, poverty, and inequality. Topics include: economic and demographic analysis of rapid population growth; measuring and analyzing poverty and inequality; fertility, investments in children, and intergenerational transmission of inequality; household dynamics and the labor market; economics of fertility and marriage; impact of changing age structure on social security systems.
Prerequisites: Economics 401. Students are expected to have a basic familiarity with intermediate microeconomics. Familiarity with statistics and computer statistical packages will be useful.
Required texts:
Haroon Bhorat, Murray Leibbrandt, et al., Fighting Poverty: Labour Markets and Inequality in South Africa, University of Cape Town Press, 2001.pp. 21-40 (not available in bookstores - purchase at Accu-Copy with course pack).
A course pack with additional required readings is available at Accu-Copy, 518 William Street, 769-8338.
Course web sites:
www.psc.isr.umich.edu/~davidl/econ466
UM CourseTools: http://coursetools.ummu.umich.edu/
Web-based course on statistical analysis of survey data: http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/saproject/
Grading: Required work for the course consists of the following:
A 20 page term paper (counts for 25% of grade)
Two mid-term exams (each exam counts for 25% of grade)
Two computer lab quizzes (each quiz counts for 10% of grade)
Problem sets throughout the course (5% combined)
Upper Division Writing Requirement: The first draft of term papers will be due Monday, November 10 (this applies to all students, whether or not you are taking the course for writing credit). Students electing writing credit are required to revise their papers and submit a revised version by the time of the officially scheduled final exam. Other students have the option of submitting revised papers. For students who submit revised papers, the first draft will count for 30% of the final paper grade.
Mid-term Exam Dates:
First mid-term: Wed 29 October
Second mid-term: Wed 10 December
Course Outline and Reading List:
Lecture 1 September 3
Overview of Population Dynamics, Inequality and Poverty
Wayne Nafziger, "Population and Development," Chapter 9 in The Economics of Developing Countries, Prentice-Hall, 1990, pp. 181-212.
Population Reference Bureau, World Population Data Sheet, 2003.
World Development Report, tables on poverty and inequality
Lecture 2 September 8
Historical Patterns of Demographic and Economic Change:
Malthus, Economic-Demographic Equilibrium, and the Demographic Transition
T. Paul Schultz, Chapter 2, "Preindustrial Equilibrium: A Malthusian Perspective," pp. 9-33, in Economics of Population, Addison-Wesley, 1981.
Computer Lab 1 September 10
Introduction to Household Surveys and Stata
Lecture 3 September 15
Inequality and Poverty I: Inequality
Murray Leibbrandt, Ingrid Woolard, and Haroon Bhorat, Chapter 1, "Understanding Household Inequality in South Africa," in Haroon Bhorat, Murray Leibbrandt, et al., Fighting Poverty: Labour Markets and Inequality in South Africa, University of Cape Town Press, 2001.pp. 21-40.
Notes on inequality measures (CourseTools web site)
*Gary Fields, Chapter 2, "The Meaning and Measurement of Income Inequality," in Distribution and Development: A New Look at the Developing World. MIT Press, 2000.
*Angus Deaton, Chapter 3, "Welfare, Poverty and Distribution," pp 133-140, 148-151 and 157-162 in The Analysis of Household Surveys: A Microeconometric Approach to Development Policy. The John Hopkins University Press, 1997.
Computer Lab 2 September 17
Introduction to Stata Frequency Distributions and Tables
Lecture 4 September 22
Inequality and Poverty II: Poverty
Ingrid Woolard and Murray Leibbrandt, "Measuring Poverty in South Africa," Chapter 2 in Haroon Bhorat, Murray Leibbrandt, et al., Fighting Poverty: Labour Markets and Inequality in South Africa, University of Cape Town Press, 2001.pp. 41-73.
*Gary Fields, Chapter 4, "The Measurement of Poverty," in Distribution and Development: A New Look at the Developing World. MIT Press, 2000.
*Angus Deaton, Chapter 3, "Welfare, Poverty and Distribution," pp 140-148, 164-169, in The Analysis of Household Surveys: A Microeconometric Approach to Development Policy. The John Hopkins University Press, 1997.
Computer Lab 3 September 24
Graphing
Lecture 5 September 29
Education, Earnings, and Inequality
Ronald Ehrenberg and Robert Smith, Chapter 9, "Investments in Human Capital: Education and Training", in Modern Labor Economics, Addison-Wesley, 2000, pp. 290-329.
Kermyt Anderson, Anne Case and David Lam, "Causes and Consequences of Schooling Outcomes in South Africa: Evidence from Survey Data, Social Dynamics 27(1): 137-59, 2001.
*Damodar Gujarati, Chapter 15, "Regression on Dummy Variables", in Basic Econometrics, (3rd Ed) McGraw-Hill, 1995.
Computer Lab 4 October 1
Analyzing Inequality and Poverty
Lab Quiz #1
Lecture 6 October 6
The Economics of Fertility
Gary Becker, "The Demand for Children," Chapter 5 in A Treatise on the Family, Enlarged Edition, Harvard University Press, 1991.
* Gary Becker, "Nobel Lecture: The Economic Way of Looking at Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, June 1993, pp. 385-409.
Computer Lab 5 October 8
Introduction to Regression
October 13 Fall STUDY Break No Lecture
Computer Lab 6 October 8
Application of Regressions to Earnings Functions
Term paper proposal due
October 20 Lecture 7
Fertility, Investments in Children, and Intergenerational Mobility
David Lam and Suzanne Duryea, "Effects of Schooling on Fertility, Labor Supply, and Investments in Children, With Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Human Resources, Winter 1999, 34(1): 160-192.
Lam, David. "Generating Extreme Inequality: Schooling, Earnings, and Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital in South Africa and Brazil," Population Studies Center Research Report 99-439. August 1999.
October 22 - Computer Lab 7
More on regression
October 27 - Lecture 8
Economics of Marriage
Gary Becker, "A Theory of Marriage: Part I," Journal of Political Economy, July/August 1973, pp. 813-836, 841-846.
*David Lam and Robert Schoeni, "Family Ties and Labor Markets in the United States and Brazil," Journal of Human Resources, Fall 1994, 29(4): 1235-1258.
October 29
Mid-Term Exam (held in computer lab)
November 3 - Lecture 9
Economic Links Between Generations
Gary Becker, "A Theory of Social Interactions, Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), Nov.-Dec. 1974, pp. 1063-1093.
Gary Becker and Kevin Murphy, "The Family and the State," Journal of Law and Economics, April 1988, pp. 1-18.
November 5 Lab 8
To be announced
November 10 Lecture 10
The Demography and Economics of Age Structure
Ansley Coale, "How a Population Ages or Grows Younger," in William Peterson, editor, Readings in Population, Macmillan, 1972, pp. 115-120.
Kevin Kinsella and Victoria Velkoff, Chapters 1-3 in An Aging World: 2001, U.S. Census Bureau Series P95/01, Washington, D.C.
Ronald Lee, "The Formal Demography of Population Aging, Transfers, and the Economic Life Cycle," in Linda Martin and Samuel Preston, editors, Demography of Aging, Washington: National Academy Press, 1994, 8-49.
November 12 Lab 9
Analysis of age structure
November 17 Lecture 11
Social Policy and Redistribution
Servaas van der Berg, "Redistribution through the Budget: Public Expenditure Incidence in South Africa, 1993-1997," Social Dynamics, 27(1): 140-164, 2001.
*Servaas van der Berg, "Social Policy to Address Poverty," Chapter 7 in Haroon Bhorat, Murray Leibbrandt, et al., Fighting Poverty: Labour Markets and Inequality in South Africa, University of Cape Town Press, 2001.
November 19 Lab 10
Concentration curves
Lab Quiz #2
November 24 Lecture 12
Social Policy and Redistribution: The Case of South Africas Old-Age Pensions
Anne Case and Angus Deaton, "Large Cash Transfers to the Elderly in South Africa", The Economic Journal, 108 (September), 1330-1361, 1998.
November 26 Lab 11
Pensions
December 1 Lecture 13
Social Mobility
Murray Leibbrandt and Ingrid Woolard, "The Labour Market and Household Income Inequality in South Africa: Existing Evidence and New Panel Data", Journal of International Development, 13: 671-689, 2001.
Paul Cichello, Gary Fields and Murray Leibbrandt, "Are African Workers Getting Ahead in the New South Africa? Evidence from KwaZulu Natal 1993-1998", Social Dynamics 27(1): 120-139, 2001.
*Gary Fields, Chapter 6, "The Meaning and Measurement of Income Mobility", in Distribution and Development: A New Look at the Developing World. MIT Press, 2000.
December 3 - Lab 12
Measuring Income Mobility
December 8 Lecture 14
Fifty years of population change, poverty, and inequality
December 10
Second Mid-Term Exam
Final Class Meeting
Revised version of term papers due at the posted final exam time for each section