GLIM 3.77 update 3 (copyright)1985 Royal Statistical Society, London $TRANS I O $ $C ************************************************** $C THIS CODE ESTIMATE THE BASE LINE MODELS OF HGR $C 1966 MIGRATION PAPER $C $C US MIGRATION DATA $c 1975-80 8% SAMPLE, AND 1990 5% SAMPLE EXCLUDING AK, HI, DC. $C LAT LON (IN DECIMAL DEGREES) 1980. $C IMPLEMENTING DISTANCE MEASURED USING SPHERICAL $C COORDINATES. $C The original coding was kindly provided by Grusky, David $C $C Jan 29, 1996 $C GE LIN $C ************************************************** $CYCLE 25 0 1.0E-4 $ $ACCURACY 6 $ $UNIT 2304 $Echo -- $data list abolished -- $data list abolished -- invalid function/operator argument(s) -- invalid function/operator argument(s) -- $data list abolished $C *********Factorizing crossing effects************************* $CAL LCDIS=LDIS*cross$ $CAL cont=%if(cross>1,0,1) $ ! contiguity !*********6th neighbor was not significant in the model $CAL cnt2=%if(cross>2,0,cross)+1 $ !get to 5th neighbors $Fac cnt2 3 $ $CAL cnt3=%if(cross>3,0,cross)+1 $ !get to 5th neighbors $Fac cnt3 4 $ $CAL cnt5=%if(cross>5,0,cross)+1 $ !get to 5th neighbors $Fac cnt5 6 $ $C ************************************************** $CAL DIAG=%IF(%EQ(O,D),O,0):DIAG=DIAG+1$FAC DIAG %Z$ $C ******************************************** $C CREATING UNIFORM PERSISTENCE VARIABLE $C ******************************************** $CAL UNIF=%IF(D==O,1,0) $ $C TPRINT UNIF 48;48 $ $C ******************************************** $C CREATING REGIONAL EFFECTS $C ******************************************** $CAL REG=0$ $CAL NE=%IF(O<10&D<10,1,0) $ $CAL NCEN=%IF(O>9&O<22&D>9&D<22,1,0) $ $CAL S=%IF(O>21&O<38&D>21&D<38,1,0) $ $CAL W=%IF(O>37&D>37,1,0) $ $CAL REG=(NE+(NCEN*2)+(S*3)+(W*4))+1 $ $FAC REG 5$ $C DELETE NE NCEN S W $ $C TPRINT REG 48;48 $ $C ******************************************** $C CREATING SUBREGIONAL EFFECTS $C ******************************************** $CAL SUBR=0$ $CAL NEW=%IF(O<7&D<7,1,0) $ $CAL MA=%IF(O>6&O<10&D>6&D<10,1,0) $ $CAL ENC=%IF(O>9&O<15&D>9&D<15,1,0) $ $CAL WNC=%IF(O>14&O<22&D>14&D<22,1,0) $ $CAL SA=%IF(O>21&O<30&D>21&D<30,1,0) $ $CAL ESC=%IF(O>29&O<34&D>29&D<34,1,0) $ $CAL WSC=%IF(O>33&O<38&D>33&D<38,1,0) $ $CAL NM=%IF(O>37&O<41&D>37&D<41,1,0) $ $CAL SM=%IF(O>40&O<46&D>40&D<46,1,0) $ $C CAL NSM=%IF(O>37&O<46&D>37&D<46,1,0) $ !put SM to NM $CAL P=%IF(O>45&D>45,1,0) $ $CAL SUBR=(NEW+(MA*2)+(ENC*3)+(WNC*4)+(SA*5)+(ESC*6)+(WSC*7)+ (NM*8)+(SM*9)+(P*10))+1 $c CAL SUBR=(NEW+(MA*2)+(ENC*3)+(WNC*4)+(SA*5)+(ESC*6)+(WSC*7)+ (NSM*8)+(P*9))+1 !combine NM and SM $FAC SUBR 11$ $C DELETE NEW MA ENC WNC SA ESC WSC M NM SM P $ $C TPRINT SUBR 48;48 $ $C ******************************************** $C CREATING WITHIN SUBREGION CONT VARIABLE $C ******************************************** $CAL RSUB=0 $ $CAL RSUB=NEW+MA+ENC+WNC+SA+ESC+WSC+NM+SM+P $ $tab the rsub total $ 258.000 $C CAL RSUB=NEW+MA+ENC+WNC+SA+ESC+WSC+NSM+P $ !new NSM subregion $CAL CONS=CONT*RSUB $ $DELETE NEW MA WNC SA ESC WSC NM SM P $ $C ******************************************** $C CREATING WITHIN REGION CONT VARIABLE $C ******************************************** $CAL RREG=0 $ $CAL RREG=NE+NCEN+S+W $ $tab the rreg total $ 602.000 $CAL CONW=CONT*RREG $ $CAL CONR=CONT*(RREG-RSUB) $ $DELE NE NCEN S W $ $C ************************************ $C TRANSFORMING CONTIGUOUS STATE VARIABLE $C ************************************ $CAL CONB=CONT-CONR-CONS $ $C TPRINT CONT 48;48 $ $C TPRINT CONS 48;48 $ $C TPRINT CONR 48;48 $ $C TPRINT CONB 48;48 $ $C TPRINT CONW 48;48 $ $C ************************************ $C CREATING regional restructuring dummies $C ************************************ $Cal NtoS=%if((O<15&(D>25&D<30)) ,1,0) !north to south $Cal NtoW=%if((O<15&(D>40&D/=44)),1,0) !north to west $C ************************************ $C CREATING AFFINITY/DISAFFINITY MATRICES $C ************************************ $C FLORIDA BY NORTHEAST AFFINITY $CAL A1=%IF((D==29& O<10),1,0) $ $CAL A2=%IF((O==29&(D<10)),1,0) $ $C ARIZONA BY NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL AFFINITY $CAL B1=%IF((D==43&O<22),1,0) $ $CAL B2=%IF((O==43&D<22),1,0) $ $C UTAH BY NON-WEST DISAFFINITY $CAL F1=%IF((D==44&O<38),1,0) $ $CAL F2=%IF((O==44&D<38),1,0) $ $CAL F=F1+F2 $ $C CALIFORNIA DISPERSISTENCE EFFECT $CAL L1=%IF((O>37&O<48&D==48),1,0) $ $CAL L2=%IF((O==48&D>37&D<48),1,0) $ $C FLORIDA DISPERSISTENCE EFFECT $CAL M1=%IF((O>21&O<29&D==29)?(O>29&O<38&D==29),1,0) $ $CAL M2=%IF((O==29&D>21&D<29)?(O==29&D>29&D<38),1,0) $ $C NY DISPERSISTENCE EFFECT $CAL NY1=%IF((O==7&D<10),1,0) $ $CAL NY2=%IF((D==7&O<10),1,0) $ $C TPRINT cnt2 48;48 $ $C *************************************************************** $C get population and other association terms into interaction terms $C *************************************************************** $Cal intpop=%log(pop(D))*%log(pop(O))$ !pop term $Cal intarea=%log(area(D))*%log(area(O))$ !area term $CAL grprat=(grow(d))/(grow(o)) $CAL gr90=(gr86(d))/(gr86(o)) $C AL gr90=(gr85(d))/(gr85(o)) $C AL grprat=(grow(d))/(%sqrt(grow(o))) ! better off $C AL grprat=(grow(d)*grow(d))/(%sqrt(grow(o))) !better off $Cal indp=Ldis*intpop $ !interaction between pop and distance $cal wgt=1-(o==d) $tab the cons total $ 164.000 $tab the conr total $ 52.0000 $tab the conb total $ 46.0000 $tab the freq total $ 18600398. $tab the fr90 total $ 11115874. $Cal FREQ=(Freq)*wgt $Cal FR90=(Fr90+0.5)*wgt $tab the freq total $ 1745327. $tab the fr90 total $ 1036468. $CAL %n=%CU(freq*wgt) $ ! $CAL %m=%CU(fr90*wgt) $ ! $PRINT 'SAMPLE SIZE N ' %N $ SAMPLE SIZE N 1745327. $CAL %L=%LOG(%N) $PRINT 'log(n) ' %L $ log(n) 14.3725 $PRINT 'SAMPLE SIZE N ' %N $ SAMPLE SIZE N 1745327. $CAL %L=%LOG(%m) $PRINT 'log(m) ' %L $ log(m) 13.8513 $C ************************************ $C DEFINING DEPENDENT VARIABLE AND ERROR DIST $C ************************************ $YVAR FREQ $ $ERR P $ $C ************************************ $C MODEL 2 vs 3. $C ************************************ $weight wgt $ $tab the FREQ total $yvar FREQ 1745327. $error p $link L $macro wtsta! $PRINT 'PEARSONS CHISQUARE ' %X2! $PRINT 'LOGLIKELIHOOD RATIO ' %DV! $PRINT 'Degrees of Freedom ' %df! $Cal FW=%FV*wgt $CAL %U=%CU(%SQRT((%FV-FREQ)**2)*wgt) $CAL %s=%CU(%FV*wgt) $CAL %U=50*(%U/%s) $PRINT 'INDEX OF DISSIMILARITY ' %U! $calc %b= %DV - %df*%log(%n) $PRINT 'BIC Statistic' %b ! $PRINT 'Small S' %s ! $endmac ! $c *********Fitting three final models ********************** ! grusk's final model $FIT O+D+REG+SUBR+A1+A2+B1+B2+F+L1+L2+M1+LDIS+CONB+CONR+CONS $ scaled deviance = 167997.5 at cycle 4 d.f. = 2135 from 2256 observations $dis E estimate s.e. parameter 1 9.66914 0.0236748 1 2 -0.249474 0.0143992 O(2) 3 -0.820104 0.0171643 O(3) 4 1.31397 0.0113825 O(4) 5 -0.674585 0.0154582 O(5) 6 0.780153 0.0119294 O(6) 7 2.49638 0.0109615 O(7) 8 1.69384 0.0113754 O(8) 9 1.69003 0.0112957 O(9) 10 2.01570 0.0113622 O(10) 11 1.27276 0.0119345 O(11) 12 2.22961 0.0112926 O(12) 13 1.82635 0.0115545 O(13) 14 1.09262 0.0122514 O(14) 15 1.03955 0.0122967 O(15) 16 0.579628 0.0126426 O(16) 17 1.07244 0.0119568 O(17) 18 -0.136653 0.0152476 O(18) 19 -0.309732 0.0151814 O(19) 20 0.194708 0.0134092 O(20) 21 0.660465 0.0125712 O(21) 22 -0.655771 0.0160977 O(22) 23 1.07317 0.0121376 O(23) 24 1.50030 0.0117964 O(24) 25 -0.0850426 0.0139479 O(25) 26 1.11469 0.0121413 O(26) 27 0.586477 0.0129132 O(27) 28 1.08113 0.0121502 O(28) 29 2.35625 0.0114655 O(29) 30 0.515619 0.0126917 O(30) 31 0.796813 0.0124799 O(31) 32 0.574156 0.0129465 O(32) 33 0.419750 0.0133212 O(33) 34 0.287394 0.0133102 O(34) 35 0.706161 0.0128616 O(35) 36 0.542997 0.0128457 O(36) 37 2.20627 0.0114685 O(37) 38 0.239054 0.0152416 O(38) 39 0.159844 0.0149718 O(39) 40 -0.411962 0.0166718 O(40) 41 1.50518 0.0120477 O(41) 42 0.486653 0.0136997 O(42) 43 1.21479 0.0133454 O(43) 44 0.577219 0.0155772 O(44) 45 -0.0193941 0.0151921 O(45) 46 1.30905 0.0129955 O(46) 47 0.609719 0.0140412 O(47) 48 3.43376 0.0112297 O(48) 49 -0.255981 0.0116468 D(2) 50 -0.694773 0.0131620 D(3) 51 0.335891 0.0105177 D(4) 52 -1.56821 0.0157225 D(5) 53 -0.193825 0.0111381 D(6) 54 1.03128 0.0103009 D(7) 55 0.663438 0.0107330 D(8) 56 0.970669 0.0102502 D(9) 57 1.29056 0.0104020 D(10) 58 0.908048 0.0108205 D(11) 59 1.48366 0.0103543 D(12) 60 1.17429 0.0106590 D(13) 61 0.949427 0.0109056 D(14) 62 0.943540 0.0109740 D(15) 63 0.199309 0.0117982 D(16) 64 0.831058 0.0108156 D(17) 65 -0.0500422 0.0134155 D(18) 66 -0.352216 0.0138548 D(19) 67 0.105948 0.0122153 D(20) 68 0.795741 0.0109979 D(21) 69 -1.40177 0.0159725 D(22) 70 0.174532 0.0116111 D(23) 71 1.09500 0.0106132 D(24) 72 -0.487067 0.0128174 D(25) 73 0.943409 0.0107766 D(26) 74 0.471014 0.0114732 D(27) 75 1.04403 0.0106989 D(28) 76 2.53046 0.0104454 D(29) 77 0.198181 0.0114386 D(30) 78 0.739090 0.0109847 D(31) 79 0.506607 0.0114703 D(32) 80 0.245549 0.0121189 D(33) 81 0.435726 0.0115025 D(34) 82 0.636226 0.0114686 D(35) 83 0.847940 0.0109382 D(36) 84 2.46575 0.00986630 D(37) 85 0.0960517 0.0141088 D(38) 86 0.483612 0.0126373 D(39) 87 -0.0459008 0.0136881 D(40) 88 1.56542 0.0105260 D(41) 89 0.442504 0.0123881 D(42) 90 1.03142 0.0123910 D(43) 91 0.926576 0.0135969 D(44) 92 0.193177 0.0127788 D(45) 93 1.73672 0.0109170 D(46) 94 1.03334 0.0118787 D(47) 95 3.36110 0.00987373 D(48) 96 0.00662815 0.00769033 REG(2) 97 0.0271154 0.00557933 REG(3) 98 0.233819 0.00466816 REG(4) 99 0.242012 0.00868075 REG(5) 100 0.888388 0.00923248 SUBR(2) 101 0.0231399 0.00892070 SUBR(3) 102 -0.288024 0.00712268 SUBR(4) 103 0.905310 0.00745232 SUBR(5) 104 0.246064 0.00596702 SUBR(6) 105 0.371046 0.0101744 SUBR(7) 106 0.185172 0.00805296 SUBR(8) 107 0.335135 0.0213051 SUBR(9) 108 -0.370561 0.0115279 SUBR(10) 109 0.540699 0.00860009 SUBR(11) 110 1.05733 0.00693042 A1 111 0.716404 0.0102341 A2 112 1.18551 0.0105238 B1 113 0.509188 0.0137426 B2 114 -0.551608 0.0130616 F 115 -1.05884 0.00909767 L1 116 -0.575649 0.00870186 L2 117 -0.482051 0.00806132 M1 118 -0.827379 0.00251797 LDIS 119 0.781755 0.00495824 CONB 120 0.619411 0.00442742 CONR 121 0.470091 0.00435462 CONS scale parameter taken as 1.00000 $use wtsta $ PEARSONS CHISQUARE 176745. LOGLIKELIHOOD RATIO 167998. Degrees of Freedom 2135.00 INDEX OF DISSIMILARITY 11.9497 BIC Statistic 137312. Small S 1745328. $FIT O+D+REG+SUBR+A1+A2+B1+B2+F+L1+L2+M1+ny1+ny2+LDIS+CONB+CONR+CONS $ scaled deviance = 159278.3 at cycle 4 d.f. = 2133 from 2256 observations $dis E estimate s.e. parameter 1 9.76387 0.0237295 1 2 -0.252044 0.0143984 O(2) 3 -0.814244 0.0171642 O(3) 4 1.31777 0.0113839 O(4) 5 -0.681901 0.0154602 O(5) 6 0.784856 0.0119325 O(6) 7 2.56578 0.0110503 O(7) 8 1.61065 0.0114566 O(8) 9 1.62920 0.0113298 O(9) 10 2.01595 0.0113711 O(10) 11 1.27192 0.0119438 O(11) 12 2.22356 0.0113029 O(12) 13 1.82770 0.0115634 O(13) 14 1.08747 0.0122612 O(14) 15 1.03649 0.0123069 O(15) 16 0.569364 0.0126534 O(16) 17 1.06341 0.0119676 O(17) 18 -0.136347 0.0152558 O(18) 19 -0.311924 0.0151907 O(19) 20 0.190462 0.0134197 O(20) 21 0.654449 0.0125825 O(21) 22 -0.652381 0.0161027 O(22) 23 1.07694 0.0121442 O(23) 24 1.49826 0.0118040 O(24) 25 -0.0887341 0.0139555 O(25) 26 1.11454 0.0121497 O(26) 27 0.588206 0.0129227 O(27) 28 1.07646 0.0121598 O(28) 29 2.36347 0.0114732 O(29) 30 0.502124 0.0127052 O(30) 31 0.781413 0.0124923 O(31) 32 0.556670 0.0129646 O(32) 33 0.410830 0.0133355 O(33) 34 0.282709 0.0133183 O(34) 35 0.705245 0.0128724 O(35) 36 0.537937 0.0128574 O(36) 37 2.21146 0.0114777 O(37) 38 0.256573 0.0152498 O(38) 39 0.154245 0.0149920 O(39) 40 -0.415477 0.0166856 O(40) 41 1.50842 0.0120559 O(41) 42 0.487122 0.0137099 O(42) 43 1.20658 0.0133682 O(43) 44 0.584162 0.0155913 O(44) 45 -0.0402370 0.0152244 O(45) 46 1.32140 0.0130064 O(46) 47 0.621495 0.0140530 O(47) 48 3.44531 0.0112360 O(48) 49 -0.257042 0.0116464 D(2) 50 -0.682853 0.0131601 D(3) 51 0.344664 0.0105185 D(4) 52 -1.57439 0.0157249 D(5) 53 -0.182764 0.0111436 D(6) 54 1.19799 0.0109495 D(7) 55 0.553195 0.0108545 D(8) 56 0.870514 0.0103355 D(9) 57 1.28553 0.0104218 D(10) 58 0.904160 0.0108419 D(11) 59 1.47480 0.0103768 D(12) 60 1.17183 0.0106806 D(13) 61 0.943019 0.0109261 D(14) 62 0.941683 0.0109953 D(15) 63 0.186395 0.0118191 D(16) 64 0.819966 0.0108367 D(17) 65 -0.0478080 0.0134323 D(18) 66 -0.352075 0.0138719 D(19) 67 0.104280 0.0122343 D(20) 68 0.792628 0.0110190 D(21) 69 -1.40955 0.0159855 D(22) 70 0.167931 0.0116308 D(23) 71 1.08731 0.0106347 D(24) 72 -0.498654 0.0128351 D(25) 73 0.939216 0.0107984 D(26) 74 0.469026 0.0114958 D(27) 75 1.03781 0.0107206 D(28) 76 2.53569 0.0104642 D(29) 77 0.179202 0.0114629 D(30) 78 0.722547 0.0110081 D(31) 79 0.487988 0.0114981 D(32) 80 0.237091 0.0121434 D(33) 81 0.430340 0.0115220 D(34) 82 0.634961 0.0114902 D(35) 83 0.843972 0.0109603 D(36) 84 2.47067 0.00988852 D(37) 85 0.113055 0.0141220 D(38) 86 0.486004 0.0126608 D(39) 87 -0.0459071 0.0137078 D(40) 88 1.57066 0.0105441 D(41) 89 0.445759 0.0124053 D(42) 90 1.01284 0.0124240 D(43) 91 0.936142 0.0136253 D(44) 92 0.164828 0.0128241 D(45) 93 1.75011 0.0109345 D(46) 94 1.04725 0.0118929 D(47) 95 3.37236 0.00989048 D(48) 96 0.373570 0.00835593 REG(2) 97 0.00200745 0.00560695 REG(3) 98 0.218096 0.00468637 REG(4) 99 0.195939 0.00872913 REG(5) 100 0.490288 0.00994926 SUBR(2) 101 0.254731 0.00920012 SUBR(3) 102 -0.269203 0.00714025 SUBR(4) 103 0.933088 0.00747204 SUBR(5) 104 0.254706 0.00597939 SUBR(6) 105 0.404859 0.0101933 SUBR(7) 106 0.196560 0.00806294 SUBR(8) 107 0.364614 0.0213182 SUBR(9) 108 -0.322311 0.0115656 SUBR(10) 109 0.559701 0.00862423 SUBR(11) 110 1.05186 0.00693148 A1 111 0.708328 0.0102334 A2 112 1.21344 0.0105556 B1 113 0.527310 0.0137617 B2 114 -0.552837 0.0130727 F 115 -1.06151 0.00912644 L1 116 -0.574406 0.00872780 L2 117 -0.482428 0.00806444 M1 118 -0.700145 0.00863125 NY1 119 -0.860712 0.0113005 NY2 120 -0.841382 0.00252230 LDIS 121 0.800788 0.00496462 CONB 122 0.686886 0.00446014 CONR 123 0.460784 0.00435572 CONS scale parameter taken as 1.00000 $use wtsta $ PEARSONS CHISQUARE 165925. LOGLIKELIHOOD RATIO 159278. Degrees of Freedom 2133.00 INDEX OF DISSIMILARITY 11.5992 BIC Statistic 128622. Small S 1745329. $FIT O+D+REG+SUBR+A1+A2+B1+B2+F+L1+L2+M1+ny1+ny2+LDIS+CONB+CONR+CONS +cnt5+grprat+NtoS+NtoW $ scaled deviance = 137067.0 at cycle 3 d.f. = 2126 from 2256 observations $dis E estimate s.e. parameter 1 8.75456 0.0297305 1 2 -0.131608 0.0145539 O(2) 3 -0.748321 0.0172410 O(3) 4 1.35901 0.0114243 O(4) 5 -0.626377 0.0154530 O(5) 6 0.853524 0.0119885 O(6) 7 2.55266 0.0110485 O(7) 8 1.66314 0.0114960 O(8) 9 1.58376 0.0113644 O(9) 10 1.86172 0.0115357 O(10) 11 1.10927 0.0121465 O(11) 12 2.06322 0.0114899 O(12) 13 1.35350 0.0142543 O(13) 14 1.03323 0.0123197 O(14) 15 1.22609 0.0124744 O(15) 16 0.670088 0.0128234 O(16) 17 1.12903 0.0121452 O(17) 18 0.0929937 0.0154947 O(18) 19 -0.130658 0.0153716 O(19) 20 0.315984 0.0135884 O(20) 21 0.791047 0.0127409 O(21) 22 -0.675915 0.0165350 O(22) 23 1.18615 0.0122825 O(23) 24 1.66268 0.0119519 O(24) 25 -0.230780 0.0149903 O(25) 26 1.27940 0.0123030 O(26) 27 0.834495 0.0131363 O(27) 28 1.26174 0.0123547 O(28) 29 2.59073 0.0117844 O(29) 30 0.594845 0.0128416 O(30) 31 0.941835 0.0126924 O(31) 32 0.747963 0.0131209 O(32) 33 0.555661 0.0134901 O(33) 34 0.440298 0.0134956 O(34) 35 0.795170 0.0131334 O(35) 36 0.704277 0.0130609 O(36) 37 2.37640 0.0117724 O(37) 38 0.314834 0.0153761 O(38) 39 0.202962 0.0151853 O(39) 40 -0.257687 0.0168690 O(40) 41 1.63089 0.0123009 O(41) 42 0.531503 0.0139044 O(42) 43 1.35131 0.0137488 O(43) 44 0.638319 0.0158308 O(44) 45 0.151504 0.0154114 O(45) 46 1.47875 0.0131912 O(46) 47 0.750322 0.0141779 O(47) 48 3.59328 0.0114162 O(48) 49 -0.390953 0.0119454 D(2) 50 -0.821060 0.0132914 D(3) 51 0.273546 0.0105503 D(4) 52 -1.53786 0.0157205 D(5) 53 -0.231994 0.0111731 D(6) 54 1.16098 0.0109647 D(7) 55 0.494229 0.0108920 D(8) 56 0.822084 0.0103939 D(9) 57 1.19142 0.0105184 D(10) 58 0.816826 0.0109159 D(11) 59 1.36235 0.0104781 D(12) 60 1.12088 0.0107639 D(13) 61 0.790819 0.0110854 D(14) 62 0.816067 0.0111509 D(15) 63 0.102671 0.0119247 D(16) 64 0.697449 0.0109804 D(17) 65 -0.286873 0.0138920 D(18) 66 -0.546696 0.0141064 D(19) 67 -0.0345793 0.0123613 D(20) 68 0.644681 0.0111681 D(21) 69 -1.37671 0.0160216 D(22) 70 0.123428 0.0116902 D(23) 71 0.960302 0.0108080 D(24) 72 -0.498885 0.0129375 D(25) 73 0.601430 0.0112847 D(26) 74 0.105646 0.0120324 D(27) 75 0.672730 0.0112197 D(28) 76 2.01750 0.0115869 D(29) 77 0.132278 0.0115636 D(30) 78 0.547966 0.0113091 D(31) 79 0.383398 0.0116624 D(32) 80 0.121275 0.0122949 D(33) 81 0.302385 0.0117088 D(34) 82 0.579296 0.0116096 D(35) 83 0.685426 0.0112018 D(36) 84 2.32349 0.0101755 D(37) 85 -0.0787563 0.0143277 D(38) 86 0.242818 0.0130033 D(39) 87 -0.360684 0.0142587 D(40) 88 1.15067 0.0113740 D(41) 89 0.103384 0.0128285 D(42) 90 0.529275 0.0135905 D(43) 91 0.545867 0.0141194 D(44) 92 -0.302994 0.0139127 D(45) 93 1.33381 0.0116604 D(46) 94 0.682184 0.0123827 D(47) 95 3.02981 0.0104221 D(48) 96 0.361768 0.00849506 REG(2) 97 0.0486315 0.00570881 REG(3) 98 0.129843 0.00504644 REG(4) 99 0.327750 0.00894998 REG(5) 100 0.514511 0.00997708 SUBR(2) 101 0.257786 0.00919837 SUBR(3) 102 -0.113659 0.00734225 SUBR(4) 103 0.766787 0.00756757 SUBR(5) 104 0.325526 0.00616883 SUBR(6) 105 0.361874 0.0102505 SUBR(7) 106 0.0961740 0.00819962 SUBR(8) 107 0.228635 0.0212989 SUBR(9) 108 -0.340047 0.0115890 SUBR(10) 109 0.502593 0.00873689 SUBR(11) 110 0.865811 0.00767311 A1 111 0.660925 0.0104060 A2 112 0.995620 0.0110196 B1 113 0.510291 0.0138261 B2 114 -0.406216 0.0131569 F 115 -1.08598 0.00920758 L1 116 -0.641344 0.00878717 L2 117 -0.268847 0.00835688 M1 118 -0.665538 0.00862672 NY1 119 -0.831757 0.0113034 NY2 120 -0.721922 0.00357172 LDIS 121 1.12575 0.00773591 CONB 122 1.00378 0.00759005 CONR 123 0.822111 0.00785853 CONS 124 0.00000 aliased CNT5(2) 125 0.313433 0.00541947 CNT5(3) 126 0.140951 0.00435387 CNT5(4) 127 0.131536 0.00398089 CNT5(5) 128 0.0534446 0.00408779 CNT5(6) 129 0.111254 0.00219583 GRPR 130 0.610759 0.00623665 NTOS 131 0.409726 0.00558071 NTOW scale parameter taken as 1.00000 $use wtsta $ PEARSONS CHISQUARE 141289. LOGLIKELIHOOD RATIO 137067. Degrees of Freedom 2126.00 INDEX OF DISSIMILARITY 10.8709 BIC Statistic 106511. Small S 1745333. $c **********************90 data***************************** $c **********************90 data***************************** $YVAR FR90 $ -- model changed $macro wts90! $PRINT 'PEARSONS CHISQUARE ' %X2! $PRINT 'LOGLIKELIHOOD RATIO ' %DV! $PRINT 'Degrees of Freedom ' %df! $CAL %U=%CU(%SQRT((%FV-fr90)**2)*wgt ) $CAL %s=%CU(%FV*wgt) $CAL %U=50*(%U/%s) $PRINT 'INDEX OF DISSIMILARITY ' %U! $calc %b= %DV - %df*%log(%m) $PRINT 'BIC Statistic' %b ! $endmac ! $c *********Fitting three final models ********************** ! grusk's final model $FIT O+D+REG+SUBR+A1+A2+B1+B2+F+L1+L2+M1+LDIS+CONB+CONR+CONS $ scaled deviance = 99703.6 at cycle 4 d.f. = 2135 from 2256 observations $dis E estimate s.e. parameter 1 8.68059 0.0308942 1 2 -0.0846254 0.0190670 O(2) 3 -0.827876 0.0236632 O(3) 4 1.37811 0.0155879 O(4) 5 -0.611203 0.0207285 O(5) 6 0.819150 0.0162773 O(6) 7 2.46107 0.0150719 O(7) 8 1.71827 0.0155786 O(8) 9 1.66756 0.0155220 O(9) 10 1.95633 0.0157307 O(10) 11 1.34587 0.0164454 O(11) 12 2.32070 0.0155219 O(12) 13 1.86411 0.0159405 O(13) 14 1.27301 0.0167535 O(14) 15 1.19107 0.0169709 O(15) 16 0.831986 0.0172746 O(16) 17 1.23349 0.0164801 O(17) 18 0.226110 0.0202097 O(18) 19 -0.114916 0.0211599 O(19) 20 0.455132 0.0183782 O(20) 21 0.947884 0.0171152 O(21) 22 -0.771650 0.0229700 O(22) 23 1.07389 0.0167995 O(23) 24 1.63491 0.0161874 O(24) 25 0.338573 0.0181033 O(25) 26 1.29747 0.0165655 O(26) 27 0.805560 0.0173930 O(27) 28 1.36802 0.0164653 O(28) 29 2.58153 0.0157514 O(29) 30 0.730392 0.0172730 O(30) 31 1.01151 0.0169569 O(31) 32 0.803537 0.0174333 O(32) 33 0.629428 0.0181156 O(33) 34 0.637572 0.0179280 O(34) 35 1.56374 0.0164528 O(35) 36 1.30230 0.0166541 O(36) 37 3.02780 0.0153605 O(37) 38 0.614761 0.0196854 O(38) 39 0.566621 0.0192298 O(39) 40 0.265490 0.0201101 O(40) 41 1.90770 0.0162250 O(41) 42 0.838918 0.0181170 O(42) 43 1.47638 0.0176525 O(43) 44 1.10084 0.0195178 O(44) 45 0.285593 0.0195338 O(45) 46 1.62474 0.0173950 O(46) 47 0.843680 0.0187649 O(47) 48 3.64921 0.0154399 O(48) 49 -0.0614781 0.0162114 D(2) 50 -0.896244 0.0203949 D(3) 51 0.840344 0.0141658 D(4) 52 -0.859086 0.0186930 D(5) 53 0.233305 0.0150041 D(6) 54 1.36700 0.0140181 D(7) 55 0.969859 0.0145138 D(8) 56 1.16981 0.0140979 D(9) 57 1.32603 0.0143687 D(10) 58 0.891111 0.0149866 D(11) 59 1.46742 0.0143253 D(12) 60 1.16925 0.0147508 D(13) 61 0.666238 0.0156040 D(14) 62 0.711527 0.0155807 D(15) 63 -0.0827117 0.0170892 D(16) 64 0.791653 0.0149838 D(17) 65 -0.877252 0.0231767 D(18) 66 -0.866557 0.0217174 D(19) 67 -0.247872 0.0179224 D(20) 68 0.397841 0.0158947 D(21) 69 -0.902431 0.0199834 D(22) 70 0.812555 0.0150478 D(23) 71 1.55863 0.0142538 D(24) 72 -0.545554 0.0184794 D(25) 73 1.46604 0.0143400 D(26) 74 0.855974 0.0151769 D(27) 75 1.53551 0.0142885 D(28) 76 2.89025 0.0140818 D(29) 77 0.244082 0.0158973 D(30) 78 0.943689 0.0149319 D(31) 79 0.563148 0.0157256 D(32) 80 0.117666 0.0169242 D(33) 81 0.274934 0.0162368 D(34) 82 0.319987 0.0166012 D(35) 83 0.445562 0.0159178 D(36) 84 2.33043 0.0138374 D(37) 85 -0.236572 0.0206694 D(38) 86 0.0328609 0.0186758 D(39) 87 -0.886411 0.0230170 D(40) 88 1.34145 0.0147460 D(41) 89 0.350269 0.0168171 D(42) 90 1.41741 0.0156975 D(43) 91 0.556536 0.0188061 D(44) 92 0.702714 0.0160436 D(45) 93 1.73404 0.0149522 D(46) 94 0.885483 0.0163729 D(47) 95 3.43777 0.0135716 D(48) 96 -0.00725737 0.00992681 REG(2) 97 0.0806835 0.00806448 REG(3) 98 0.200095 0.00596498 REG(4) 99 0.447482 0.0110732 REG(5) 100 0.872553 0.0121537 SUBR(2) 101 0.238163 0.0114531 SUBR(3) 102 -0.191887 0.0101341 SUBR(4) 103 0.967812 0.0109085 SUBR(5) 104 0.207513 0.00723239 SUBR(6) 105 0.533159 0.0131308 SUBR(7) 106 0.135930 0.0101692 SUBR(8) 107 0.436123 0.0294413 SUBR(9) 108 -0.252850 0.0137534 SUBR(10) 109 0.584675 0.0110381 SUBR(11) 110 1.14717 0.00846004 A1 111 0.705013 0.0123089 A2 112 0.860131 0.0129823 B1 113 0.767270 0.0164520 B2 114 -0.419314 0.0166362 F 115 -0.913448 0.0109373 L1 116 -0.844724 0.0112876 L2 117 -0.380347 0.00897809 M1 118 -0.804537 0.00316665 LDIS 119 0.726360 0.00674399 CONB 120 0.581311 0.00575117 CONR 121 0.396462 0.00565037 CONS scale parameter taken as 1.00000 $use wts90 $ PEARSONS CHISQUARE 105115. LOGLIKELIHOOD RATIO 99703.6 Degrees of Freedom 2135.00 INDEX OF DISSIMILARITY 11.9854 BIC Statistic 70131.0 $FIT O+D+REG+SUBR+A1+A2+B1+B2+F+L1+L2+M1+ny1+ny2+LDIS+CONB+CONR+CONS $ scaled deviance = 95190.02 at cycle 4 d.f. = 2133 from 2256 observations $dis E estimate s.e. parameter 1 8.75926 0.0309533 1 2 -0.0855577 0.0190662 O(2) 3 -0.819661 0.0236629 O(3) 4 1.38457 0.0155889 O(4) 5 -0.615409 0.0207301 O(5) 6 0.828859 0.0162796 O(6) 7 2.51099 0.0152253 O(7) 8 1.64681 0.0156710 O(8) 9 1.60715 0.0155676 O(9) 10 1.95132 0.0157375 O(10) 11 1.34021 0.0164528 O(11) 12 2.31140 0.0155301 O(12) 13 1.86004 0.0159479 O(13) 14 1.26551 0.0167609 O(14) 15 1.18612 0.0169790 O(15) 16 0.820506 0.0172834 O(16) 17 1.22222 0.0164887 O(17) 18 0.223649 0.0202165 O(18) 19 -0.119012 0.0211669 O(19) 20 0.449325 0.0183861 O(20) 21 0.940630 0.0171237 O(21) 22 -0.774859 0.0229734 O(22) 23 1.07119 0.0168044 O(23) 24 1.62683 0.0161935 O(24) 25 0.330148 0.0181097 O(25) 26 1.29104 0.0165725 O(26) 27 0.800472 0.0174020 O(27) 28 1.35841 0.0164727 O(28) 29 2.58221 0.0157582 O(29) 30 0.712154 0.0172858 O(30) 31 0.988618 0.0169696 O(31) 32 0.777556 0.0174516 O(32) 33 0.618512 0.0181285 O(33) 34 0.629677 0.0179350 O(34) 35 1.55999 0.0164622 O(35) 36 1.29570 0.0166643 O(36) 37 3.02853 0.0153687 O(37) 38 0.628649 0.0196919 O(38) 39 0.558856 0.0192493 O(39) 40 0.262859 0.0201233 O(40) 41 1.91029 0.0162310 O(41) 42 0.837834 0.0181256 O(42) 43 1.46236 0.0176731 O(43) 44 1.10683 0.0195358 O(44) 45 0.259962 0.0195641 O(45) 46 1.63036 0.0174073 O(46) 47 0.846512 0.0187792 O(47) 48 3.65521 0.0154451 O(48) 49 -0.0642297 0.0162115 D(2) 50 -0.891304 0.0203948 D(3) 51 0.842257 0.0141684 D(4) 52 -0.866726 0.0186963 D(5) 53 0.234465 0.0150138 D(6) 54 1.53808 0.0145428 D(7) 55 0.868050 0.0146784 D(8) 56 1.07821 0.0142180 D(9) 57 1.32931 0.0143949 D(10) 58 0.895528 0.0150132 D(11) 59 1.46722 0.0143540 D(12) 60 1.17523 0.0147772 D(13) 61 0.668052 0.0156295 D(14) 62 0.716158 0.0156074 D(15) 63 -0.0868344 0.0171157 D(16) 64 0.788588 0.0150114 D(17) 65 -0.869617 0.0231942 D(18) 66 -0.861069 0.0217372 D(19) 67 -0.244277 0.0179458 D(20) 68 0.399434 0.0159211 D(21) 69 -0.901341 0.0200030 D(22) 70 0.815631 0.0150747 D(23) 71 1.56068 0.0142812 D(24) 72 -0.546843 0.0185014 D(25) 73 1.47075 0.0143676 D(26) 74 0.862417 0.0152048 D(27) 75 1.53805 0.0143167 D(28) 76 2.90110 0.0141060 D(29) 77 0.235512 0.0159280 D(30) 78 0.936291 0.0149627 D(31) 79 0.553708 0.0157609 D(32) 80 0.113389 0.0169558 D(33) 81 0.277095 0.0162605 D(34) 82 0.325144 0.0166269 D(35) 83 0.447448 0.0159448 D(36) 84 2.34047 0.0138649 D(37) 85 -0.213344 0.0206858 D(38) 86 0.0404705 0.0187046 D(39) 87 -0.882454 0.0230393 D(40) 88 1.35172 0.0147691 D(41) 89 0.356971 0.0168411 D(42) 90 1.41619 0.0157306 D(43) 91 0.571667 0.0188364 D(44) 92 0.692874 0.0160886 D(45) 93 1.75325 0.0149730 D(46) 94 0.904046 0.0163927 D(47) 95 3.45354 0.0135931 D(48) 96 0.331730 0.0108708 REG(2) 97 0.0574565 0.00809681 REG(3) 98 0.188592 0.00598244 REG(4) 99 0.407510 0.0111269 REG(5) 100 0.510388 0.0130898 SUBR(2) 101 0.453992 0.0118562 SUBR(3) 102 -0.174477 0.0101549 SUBR(4) 103 0.993223 0.0109311 SUBR(5) 104 0.213497 0.00724334 SUBR(6) 105 0.564683 0.0131563 SUBR(7) 106 0.143526 0.0101780 SUBR(8) 107 0.459546 0.0294536 SUBR(9) 108 -0.212243 0.0137984 SUBR(10) 109 0.607036 0.0110685 SUBR(11) 110 1.14388 0.00846136 A1 111 0.699167 0.0123086 A2 112 0.876009 0.0130045 B1 113 0.785429 0.0164744 B2 114 -0.422232 0.0166477 F 115 -0.915193 0.0109651 L1 116 -0.855257 0.0113169 L2 117 -0.379290 0.00898177 M1 118 -0.594287 0.0114372 NY1 119 -0.859208 0.0141280 NY2 120 -0.816510 0.00317122 LDIS 121 0.745341 0.00675250 CONB 122 0.641709 0.00579612 CONR 123 0.388129 0.00565207 CONS scale parameter taken as 1.00000 $use wts90 $ PEARSONS CHISQUARE 99538.0 LOGLIKELIHOOD RATIO 95190.0 Degrees of Freedom 2133.00 INDEX OF DISSIMILARITY 11.7499 BIC Statistic 65645.1 $FIT O+D+REG+SUBR+A1+A2+B1+B2+F+L1+L2+M1+ny1+ny2+LDIS+CONB+CONR+CONS +cnt5+gr90+NtoS+NtoW $ scaled deviance = 85053.09 at cycle 4 d.f. = 2126 from 2256 observations $dis E estimate s.e. parameter 1 8.16532 0.0387030 1 2 -0.0962995 0.0191228 O(2) 3 -0.838220 0.0236737 O(3) 4 1.36214 0.0156365 O(4) 5 -0.609069 0.0208220 O(5) 6 0.820410 0.0163138 O(6) 7 2.47337 0.0154855 O(7) 8 1.63900 0.0157019 O(8) 9 1.57845 0.0157259 O(9) 10 1.85066 0.0160816 O(10) 11 1.25863 0.0166179 O(11) 12 2.21834 0.0158320 O(12) 13 1.74579 0.0168097 O(13) 14 1.18989 0.0169487 O(14) 15 1.33950 0.0172283 O(15) 16 0.941255 0.0176809 O(16) 17 1.30717 0.0170967 O(17) 18 0.258217 0.0241591 O(18) 19 0.00666612 0.0215439 O(19) 20 0.568605 0.0188033 O(20) 21 1.04142 0.0178398 O(21) 22 -0.646332 0.0231497 O(22) 23 1.17731 0.0170080 O(23) 24 1.74831 0.0164141 O(24) 25 0.368172 0.0194680 O(25) 26 1.40763 0.0168036 O(26) 27 0.946148 0.0176424 O(27) 28 1.45807 0.0167991 O(28) 29 2.72725 0.0160784 O(29) 30 0.813057 0.0176308 O(30) 31 1.10235 0.0173175 O(31) 32 0.916216 0.0178395 O(32) 33 0.722093 0.0185461 O(33) 34 0.740966 0.0183764 O(34) 35 1.66547 0.0175664 O(35) 36 1.36803 0.0181968 O(36) 37 3.14243 0.0161125 O(37) 38 0.718382 0.0203912 O(38) 39 0.678613 0.0195292 O(39) 40 -0.174638 0.0591646 O(40) 41 1.99610 0.0169124 O(41) 42 0.896246 0.0189653 O(42) 43 1.56538 0.0181404 O(43) 44 1.15350 0.0201253 O(44) 45 0.424697 0.0197503 O(45) 46 1.76845 0.0176029 O(46) 47 0.981180 0.0189763 O(47) 48 3.80468 0.0157018 O(48) 49 -0.0480988 0.0163110 D(2) 50 -0.918720 0.0204223 D(3) 51 0.836350 0.0142587 D(4) 52 -0.829810 0.0188164 D(5) 53 0.239509 0.0150621 D(6) 54 1.54850 0.0148696 D(7) 55 0.863859 0.0147262 D(8) 56 1.06804 0.0144868 D(9) 57 1.29401 0.0148930 D(10) 58 0.851406 0.0152811 D(11) 59 1.41470 0.0147954 D(12) 60 1.16705 0.0155824 D(13) 61 0.621439 0.0159397 D(14) 62 0.700538 0.0157393 D(15) 63 -0.0990709 0.0174497 D(16) 64 0.756506 0.0156703 D(17) 65 -0.839609 0.0244031 D(18) 66 -0.892010 0.0221054 D(19) 67 -0.283412 0.0183447 D(20) 68 0.370368 0.0166507 D(21) 69 -0.935337 0.0201975 D(22) 70 0.789251 0.0151556 D(23) 71 1.51541 0.0144141 D(24) 72 -0.537558 0.0192436 D(25) 73 1.21274 0.0148287 D(26) 74 0.628037 0.0156012 D(27) 75 1.31146 0.0148068 D(28) 76 2.62020 0.0145759 D(29) 77 0.229015 0.0162783 D(30) 78 0.872565 0.0152977 D(31) 79 0.518602 0.0161259 D(32) 80 0.0622258 0.0173766 D(33) 81 0.244339 0.0167020 D(34) 82 0.326040 0.0174869 D(35) 83 0.434313 0.0170938 D(36) 84 2.31517 0.0146767 D(37) 85 -0.254231 0.0215347 D(38) 86 -0.0808026 0.0190315 D(39) 87 -0.884277 0.0250967 D(40) 88 1.22695 0.0159795 D(41) 89 0.221612 0.0179853 D(42) 90 1.27728 0.0164334 D(43) 91 0.450599 0.0196900 D(44) 92 0.503571 0.0167921 D(45) 93 1.59614 0.0153794 D(46) 94 0.754577 0.0168146 D(47) 95 3.29606 0.0141162 D(48) 96 0.383454 0.0110317 REG(2) 97 0.0951498 0.00823816 REG(3) 98 0.176459 0.00654422 REG(4) 99 0.431098 0.0113750 REG(5) 100 0.522717 0.0131506 SUBR(2) 101 0.448872 0.0118772 SUBR(3) 102 -0.0757464 0.0102922 SUBR(4) 103 0.851532 0.0110768 SUBR(5) 104 0.266992 0.00744558 SUBR(6) 105 0.504271 0.0132520 SUBR(7) 106 0.0352513 0.0104043 SUBR(8) 107 0.371854 0.0294515 SUBR(9) 108 -0.236558 0.0138373 SUBR(10) 109 0.562721 0.0112574 SUBR(11) 110 0.879438 0.00939880 A1 111 0.671848 0.0125164 A2 112 0.808615 0.0133220 B1 113 0.751945 0.0165682 B2 114 -0.332630 0.0167452 F 115 -0.921401 0.0110615 L1 116 -0.888364 0.0113822 L2 117 -0.224415 0.00920247 M1 118 -0.576700 0.0114458 NY1 119 -0.845686 0.0141546 NY2 120 -0.757456 0.00451356 LDIS 121 0.934552 0.0101807 CONB 122 0.820651 0.00978704 CONR 123 0.593299 0.0101650 CONS 124 0.00000 aliased CNT5(2) 125 0.190917 0.00701522 CNT5(3) 126 0.0679790 0.00566782 CNT5(4) 127 0.0546472 0.00520573 CNT5(5) 128 0.0276821 0.00537963 CNT5(6) 129 0.0771518 0.00735025 GR90 130 0.659239 0.00725840 NTOS 131 0.369273 0.00773339 NTOW scale parameter taken as 1.00000 $use wts90 $ PEARSONS CHISQUARE 88745.3 LOGLIKELIHOOD RATIO 85053.1 Degrees of Freedom 2126.00 INDEX OF DISSIMILARITY 11.0951 BIC Statistic 55605.2 $stop